1) Recency Bias
Recency bias causes bettors to overweight the most recent performance.
- A team wins big last week, so you assume they are unstoppable.
- A quarterback throws three interceptions, so you assume he is broken.
- One game rarely defines true probability.
Discipline move: Ask whether the line already reflects the recent result.
2) Confirmation Bias
Once you like a side, you may search only for reasons to justify it.
- Ignoring opposing injury news.
- Highlighting only stats that support your view.
- Dismissing evidence that weakens your pick.
3) Loss Aversion and Chasing
Humans feel losses more intensely than wins. That can lead to chasing.
- Doubling unit size after losing.
- Placing impulsive late-night bets.
- Adding parlay legs to “make it back.”
Warning: Chasing losses destroys bankroll discipline.
4) Overconfidence Bias
After a few wins, bettors often increase unit size or build longer parlays.
- Confidence does not change probability.
- A winning streak does not make the next bet safer.
- Stick to your process.
5) Herd Mentality
Public betting percentages and social media picks can influence decision-making.
- Everyone is on this side.
- Fear of missing out.
- Following steam without understanding why.
6) Structured Decision Framework
Before adding a leg, ask a few simple questions.
- What is the implied probability?
- What is my reasoning in one sentence?
- What would invalidate this bet?
- Would I take this as a straight?
7) Pre-Lock Checklist
Before lock, review your slip one more time.
- Injury updates reviewed?
- Line moved significantly?
- Emotional reaction driving this?
- Unit size consistent?
Mindset: Treat every slip like it is placed at a real sportsbook.
Practice Exercise
- Create one straight bet.
- Write one reason it might lose.
- Confirm unit size follows your bankroll rule.
- Reassess 30 minutes before lock.