Alternate Spread +2.5 • Minnesota Timberwolves

Take Minnesota -2.5, four units, -125 — I’ve seen this script before and I like the Wolves’ chance to close it out against Denver’s style. They can dictate pace and get the matchups they want late; that kind of control wins tight games. The 2.5-point spread makes this a short leash — Minnesota needs to win by three or more to cover, which is exactly the margin I expect. Discipline on the stake, no hero bets beyond your bankroll.