Moneyline • San Diego Padres

I’ll take the Padres for two units — partly because they’re competent and partly because I like the value here. The matchup suggests things won’t be a blowout either way, so I’m comfortable picking the team that looks like it can get the big inning when it matters. There’s no spread on this play, which signals an expectation of a close game; that makes the moneyline the clean way to back who you think executes late.