1) What Is a Bankroll?
Your bankroll is the amount allocated for betting. It is not your savings, rent, bills, or emergency money.
Rule #1: Never bet money you cannot afford to lose.
2) What Is a Unit?
A unit is a standardized bet size, often 1–3% of your bankroll.
- $1,000 bankroll → 1 unit might be $10–$30.
- Units protect you from emotional swings.
- Units make performance easier to compare.
3) Variance: Why Good Bets Still Lose
Even a 60% probability bet loses about 4 out of 10 times. Short-term outcomes are noisy.
- Losing streaks are normal.
- Short samples can mislead you.
- Variance tests discipline.
4) Risk of Ruin
Risk of ruin is the chance of losing your bankroll entirely.
- Betting too large increases risk.
- Chasing losses accelerates risk.
- Small unit sizing lowers risk.
5) Expected Value
Expected value measures whether a bet is profitable long-term.
- EV = probability of winning × win amount minus probability of losing × risk.
- Positive EV does not guarantee today’s result.
- It describes the long-term quality of the price.
6) Flat Betting vs Scaling
Flat betting means risking the same unit size each time. Scaling means changing unit size based on confidence.
- Beginners should usually flat bet.
- Scaling can increase mistakes when confidence is emotional.
- Consistency makes review easier.
7) Track Performance
Serious bettors track more than wins and losses.
- Total units risked.
- Units won or lost.
- ROI.
- Win rate.
- Closing line value.
Practice Exercise
- Set a simulated bankroll.
- Define 1 unit, ideally around 1–2%.
- Create 3 straight bets at 1 unit each.
- Track results over 10 simulated bets.